Week 1 of DT finals

Premiership Odds

Well, finals are upon us and there are now only 16 coaches who can win the flag!

So, now we know who we are playing… who is the favourite?

Coach	Odds	Last Week	Change
Prospector_1	8.89	14.70	5.82
Junktimer	9.62	9.38	-0.23
browny_wce	11.02	12.96	1.93
MTTY	11.80	12.64	0.84
thornz23	12.29	11.29	-1.00
Marcz	13.38	12.80	-0.58
elephants	14.00	10.56	-3.44
valkorum	17.11	28.50	11.39
Hellopplz	17.73	18.66	0.93
Flame	17.85	17.59	-0.26
McRooster	18.14	16.59	-1.55
BratPack	20.08	25.48	5.39
CFC 1979	20.79	17.16	-3.63
korza	20.94	17.80	-3.14
Cicjose	30.45	61.29	30.84
ossie85	34.89	29.51	-5.38

That’s right. Prospector has rocketed back up to favouritism after his epic m0nty medal win, while his co-winner browny_wce has firmed into 3rd favouritism. Junktimer, disappointed by the lack of results he received, is well placed as 2nd favourite for the flag, while the bookies have jumped off elephants. The outside chances are Cicjose and ossie85, who face tough first round opponents! Meanwhile, we are also playing off for the dreaded….

Wooden Spoon

Coach	Odds	Last Week	Change
HillHero13	2.83	3.09	0.26
Alex7089	3.41	3.12	-0.29
benjy251090	7.39	7.80	0.42
8-6 Suited	9.47	10.13	0.66
dylsta05	24.67	21.81	-2.86
reesbr	30.64	27.58	-3.05
RobsOverAchieverss	38.57	32.47	-6.10
MajorLazer	71.54	71.32	-0.21
Fletch74	127.18	112.43	-14.75
naste	127.69	115.29	-12.40
bunyip	133.80	203.86	70.06
chrisuzz	149.37	221.96	72.59
pyronerd	159.40	156.25	-3.15
DazBurg	160.20	242.35	82.14
Boomz	169.64	137.68	-31.96
hawka26	228.92	333.33	104.42

A bit more clean cut here, and I would be very surprised if the spooner doesn’t come from one of the top 4 candidates here, who seem to have given up on their season.

Finals Head to Head

$1.61 browny_wce (1st, 2103) v $2.33 Cicjose (16th, 2034)

Previous meeting:
browny_wce (2062) defeated Cicjose (1975), Round 10 2011

With a minor premiership, a m0nty medal and scoring the third highest in the COUNTRY last week in his pocket, things are looking roses for browny_wce, but one bad day could derail it all! Cicjose has had to get here the hard way, snatching a finals spot from bunyip after winning 9 of his last 11 matches. But Cicjose hasn’t outscored browny since Round 12, and browny has averaged a stunning (seriously, mind-boggling) 2601 over the last two weeks.

$2.25 CFC 1979 (8th, 2063) v $1.65 Junktimer (9th, 2113)

Previous meeting:
Junktimer (2203) lost to CFC 1979 (2216), Round 9 2011

Only 13 points separated these two the last time they played, and this week promises again to be an epic counter (much like all finals). Junktimer’s consistency throughout the year, and being the second highest point scorer, has given him clear favouritism, but I wouldn’t bet the house on it.

$2.52 ossie85 (5th, 2030) v $1.53 Prospector_1 (12th, 2115)

Previous meeting:
Prospector_1 (2045) lost to ossie85 (2127), Round 15 2011

Some people would be bitter that after finishing 5th they would get rewarded by playing the top-scorer, m0nty medal winner, Premiership favourite Prospector_1 who happened to slip down to 12th on the ladder. But not ossie85, he’s taking the high ground, and is confident that the mental edge he established in Round 15 will see him through.

$1.85 Flame (4th, 2064) v $1.96 korza (13th, 2053)

Previous meeting:
korza (1918) defeated Flame (1844), Round 13 2011

Both these coaches have been heavily backed at different times of the season, and both have had their ‘off-parts’ of the season. So it is quite fitting that only 1 will survive until next week, as the KO Champion Flame takes on korza. At one stage during the year korza had won 14 games straight, but has lost his last 5 matches and looking vulnerable.

$1.92 McRooster (3rd, 2069) v $1.88 valkorum (14th, 2072)

Previous meeting:
valkorum (2335) lost to McRooster (2388), Round 18 2011

All-Star team mates have been neck-and-neck for most of the year, highlighted by McRooster’s narrow high-scoring victory in Round 18. Valkorum broke his recent run of bad form with 3 wins last week, while McRooster let top spot slip after losing to MTTY. I can’t pick this one.

$1.77 Marcz (6th, 2089) v $2.06 BratPack (11th, 2062)

Previous meeting:
BratPack (2244) defeated Marcz (2242), Round 9 2011

Only two points separated these two in Round 9. TWO POINTS. Basically 1 uncontested possession. A tale of two halves really, with Marcz having a stronger first half of the season, and BratPack a strong second half. History means little in elimination though.

$1.93 thornz23 (7th, 2103) v $1.88 MTTY (10th, 2106)

Previous meeting:
thornz23 (2233) defeated MTTY (2205), Round 17 2011

*flips coin* Seriously. How can you separate that? Even recent history shows both averaging in the mid 2300s. Not gonna hazard a guess here.

$1.82 elephants (2nd, 2091) v $2.00 Hellopplz (15th, 2077)

Previous meetings:
elephants (2104) defeated Hellopplz (2036), Round 4 2011 (1st week of KO Cup)
Hellopplz (1872) lost to elephants (1952), Round 7 2011

Is the third time the charm for Hellopplz? Narrowly defeated by elephants twice this season, but his form in the latter half of the year is far superior to that of his first 7 rounds. Meanwhile, elephants would hate to go in the first week of the finals after such an impressive year.

And the Bottom 16 play off odds:

Game 9
17 v 32	17	hawka26 (V)	1.08	v	32	HillHero13 (V)	7.92
Game 10
24 v 25	24	naste (A)	1.90	v	25	Fletch74 (V)	1.91
Game 11
21 v 28	21	Boomz (A)	1.49	v	28	dylsta05 (A)	2.63
Game 12
20 v 29	20	DazBurg (V)	1.27	v	29	8-6 Suited (V)	3.80
Game 13
19 v 30	19	chrisuzz (A)	1.27	v	30	benjy251090 (A)	3.83
Game 14
22 v 27	22	pyronerd (A)	1.69	v	27	MajorLazer (V)	2.17
Game 15
23 v 26	23	reesbr (V)	2.02	v	26	RobsOverAchieverss (A)	1.80
Game 16
18 v 31	18	bunyip (V)	1.15	v	31	Alex7089 (V)	5.51

And also the Conference Finals are on the line! Who will be Victorian and All-Star champion?

	Victorians
1	thornz23	1.51	v	4	hawka26	2.58
2	CFC 1979	2.25	v	3	Junktimer	1.65
5	korza	1.59	v	8	bunyip	2.36
6	Prospector_1	1.67	v	7	BratPack	2.22
	Bottom 8 Finals
9	DazBurg	2.40	v	12	Hellopplz	1.58
10	Fletch74	1.40	v	11	reesbr	2.97
13	MajorLazer	1.14	v	16	HillHero13	5.70
14	8-6 Suited	1.42	v	15	Alex7089	2.88
	All-Stars
1	Flame	2.07	v	4	Marcz	1.76
2	MTTY	1.80	v	3	elephants	2.01
5	browny_wce	1.74	v	8	McRooster	2.11
6	ossie85	2.25	v	7	valkorum	1.65
	Bottom 8 Finals
9	Cicjose	1.89	v	12	pyronerd	1.92
10	chrisuzz	1.92	v	11	Boomz	1.88
13	naste	1.26	v	16	benjy251090	3.87
14	dylsta05	1.93	v	15	RobsOverAchieverss	1.88