Spoon race firms
These odds are based on actual mathematical simulations. For details on how these work, check out this article, written by nick_the_insane – the brilliant guy behind this system and The League’s esteemed editor. Remember, these odds will get more accurate as we get closer to the finals
Premiership Odds
Dream Team
After a round high score this week, thornz23 again puts himself into the bookies minds as is again in the top 5 favourites for the flag. Junktimer has firmed slightly as favourite.
$7.84 – Junktimer (up from $7.96)
$9.34 – elephants (down from $8.84)
$9.36 – Marcz (up from $9.57)
$10.58 – Prospector_1 (down from $8.41)
$13.25 – thornz23 (up from $26.44)
Falling outside the top 5 favourites:
$18.66 – MTTY (down from $14.91)
SuperCoach
The bookies still love reesbr as his price again firms for the flag, with the big mover being CFC 1979 after they were impressed with his victory over MTTY. Losing both matches this weekend has hurt dylsta05, moving outside the top 5 favourites.
$7.09 – reesbr (up from $8.39)
$9.54 – MTTY (down from $9.45)
$9.60 – Barlow 21 (up from $10.02)
$12.28 – Junktimer (down from $9.43)
$15.19 – CFC 1979 (up from $20.17)
Falling outside the top 5 favourites:
$20.83 – dylsta05 (down from $16.21)
Minor Premiership Odds
Dream Team
Two loses to Prospector_1 has severely dented his chances of the minor flag, with Prospector blowing out to over $9. Despite Marcz finding himself a game clear on top after 10 matches, the bookies still prefer elephants (currently in 3rd position) to finish the year stronger. Rob has hit back to earth with a thud after a disappointing round, while CFC 1979 is now an outside chance.
$3.74 – elephants (down from $3.86)
$4.10 – Marcz (up from $5.54)
$4.15 – Junktimer (up from $5.66)
$9.46 – Prospector_1 (down from $4.71)
$29.26 – CFC 1979 (up from $41.05)
Falling outside the top 5 favourites:
$59.90 – RobsOverAchieverss (down from $18.23)
SuperCoach
Moving from 8th to 4th this week has seen reesbr take the mantle of minor premiership favourite as well, 8 teams are currently tied on points, and it is anyone’s guess.
$4.34 – reesbr (up from $8.69)
$5.70 – Barlow 21 (up from $8.61)
$6.26 – MTTY (down from $5.78)
$8.27 – Junktimer (down from $3.56)
$11.20 – CFC 1979 (up from $22.71)
Falling outside the top 5 favourites:
$28.73 – Fletch74 (down from $15.38)
Wooden Spoon Odds (after finals)
Dream Team
A disastrous performance by Alex has seen him firm in favouritism, while an upset by bunyip has seen him drift out in betting. A no-show from benji has moved him into 4th in betting calculations.
$3.21 – Alex7089 (up from $4.07)
$5.63 – HillHero13 (up from $6.00)
$8.41 – bunyip (down from $6.49)
$11.51 – benjy251090 (up from $22.91)
$14.23 – dylsta05 (down from $8.11)
Falling outside the top 5 favourites:
$25.77 – MajorLazer (down from $20.60)
SuperCoach
The season of hawka26 has gotten better with a couple of victories, giving roo boys! new favouritism for the spoon.
$4.39 – roo boys! (up from $5.72)
$6.38 – hawka26 (down from $5.04)
$9.63 – pyronerd (down from $8.60)
$11.63 – ossie85 (down from $8.24)
$13.33 – benjy251090 (up from $16.67)
Falling outside the top 5 favourites:
$26.19 – Boomz (down from $12.61)
Wooden Spoon Odds (before finals)
Dream Team
Sitting a game clear and percentage in last spot, Alex7089 finds himself a very short $1.63 chance for the spoon.
$1.63 – Alex7089 (up from $2.78)
$6.51 – bunyip (down from $3.49)
$7.12 – HillHero13 (up from $12.12)
$20.47 – dylsta05 (down from $4.38)
$25.23 – benjy251090 (up from $155.48)
Falling outside the top 5 favourites:
$62.71 – MajorLazer (down from $36.69)
SuperCoach
Outright last doesn’t look good for the bookies, and roo boys! needs a big lift as his competition for the spoon improves.
$1.49 – roo boys! (up from $2.52)
$6.04 – pyronerd (down from $4.56)
$18.73 – ossie85 (down from $8.25)
$18.80 – benjy251090 (up from $34.42)
$20.58 – hawka26 (down from $5.76)
Falling outside the top 5 favourites:
$134.18 – Boomz (down from $14.32)
Finals Odds
The odds of your team making the final 16 teams? This should give a lot of coaches, including myself, some hope. In addition, the complete list of all odds is below. Note:
NA – means that out of the 100,000 simulations, it did not happen once.
Certain – A bookies’ (not necessary real) certainty to happen.
If odds are greater than 1000-1, they are rounded to an even 1001.00.
Dream Team
| Coach | Premiership | Top | Spoon (bf) | Spoon (af) | Top 16 |
| elephants |
9.34 |
3.86 |
NA |
1001.00 |
Certain |
| Junktimer |
7.84 |
4.15 |
NA |
1001.00 |
Certain |
| Marcz |
9.36 |
4.10 |
NA |
1001.00 |
Certain |
| Prospector_1 |
10.58 |
9.46 |
NA |
1001.00 |
Certain |
| CFC 1979 |
24.37 |
29.26 |
1001.00 |
508.02 |
1.11 |
| Flame |
20.69 |
30.15 |
1001.00 |
513.51 |
1.14 |
| thornz23 |
13.25 |
39.80 |
1001.00 |
833.33 |
1.15 |
| McRooster |
22.91 |
35.29 |
NA |
392.56 |
1.18 |
| browny_wce |
20.93 |
45.98 |
1001.00 |
479.80 |
1.19 |
| RobsOverAchieverss |
25.16 |
59.90 |
1001.00 |
477.39 |
1.20 |
| valkorum |
19.76 |
110.72 |
1001.00 |
458.94 |
1.29 |
| Boomz |
29.04 |
88.62 |
1001.00 |
235.15 |
1.36 |
| MTTY |
18.66 |
443.93 |
1001.00 |
487.18 |
1.47 |
| hawka26 |
28.81 |
174.63 |
1001.00 |
253.33 |
1.55 |
| BratPack |
32.52 |
268.36 |
1001.00 |
215.91 |
1.67 |
| pyronerd |
43.96 |
411.26 |
1001.00 |
241.73 |
1.68 |
| ossie85 |
65.34 |
328.72 |
1001.00 |
127.52 |
1.70 |
| Cicjose |
78.90 |
411.26 |
950.00 |
65.88 |
2.11 |
| chrisuzz |
89.37 |
1001.00 |
1001.00 |
99.37 |
2.29 |
| naste |
75.70 |
871.56 |
693.43 |
73.53 |
2.42 |
| korza |
67.71 |
1001.00 |
422.22 |
89.03 |
2.67 |
| reesbr |
103.15 |
1001.00 |
349.26 |
59.19 |
2.97 |
| Hellopplz |
111.37 |
1001.00 |
201.27 |
73.87 |
4.25 |
| DazBurg |
375.49 |
1001.00 |
248.04 |
45.37 |
6.55 |
| 8-6 Suited |
913.46 |
1001.00 |
89.71 |
14.39 |
6.90 |
| Fletch74 |
673.76 |
1001.00 |
108.20 |
28.63 |
8.31 |
| MajorLazer |
608.97 |
1001.00 |
62.71 |
25.77 |
9.25 |
| benjy251090 |
1001.00 |
1001.00 |
25.23 |
11.51 |
14.28 |
| dylsta05 |
1001.00 |
1001.00 |
20.47 |
14.23 |
15.84 |
| HillHero13 |
1001.00 |
1001.00 |
7.12 |
5.63 |
53.10 |
| Alex7089 | NA | NA |
1.63 |
3.21 |
736.43 |
| bunyip |
1001.00 |
NA |
6.51 |
8.41 |
753.97 |
SuperCoach
| Coach | Premiership | Top | Spoon (bf) | Spoon (af) | Top 16 |
| reesbr |
7.09 |
4.34 |
NA |
1001.00 |
Certain |
| MTTY |
9.54 |
6.26 |
NA |
1001.00 |
Certain |
| Barlow 21 |
9.60 |
5.70 |
NA |
1001.00 |
Certain |
| Junktimer |
12.28 |
8.27 |
NA |
1001.00 |
1.04 |
| CFC 1979 |
15.19 |
11.20 |
NA |
719.70 |
1.06 |
| Maca24 |
15.20 |
16.90 |
1001.00 |
443.93 |
1.13 |
| Fletch74 |
22.08 |
28.73 |
1001.00 |
387.76 |
1.14 |
| Marcz |
18.52 |
22.71 |
1001.00 |
306.45 |
1.19 |
| CrowsFan |
28.80 |
32.03 |
1001.00 |
210.64 |
1.22 |
| DazBurg |
33.62 |
76.18 |
1001.00 |
140.12 |
1.41 |
| Cruiseon |
27.57 |
57.68 |
1001.00 |
139.50 |
1.42 |
| hawk_88 |
33.81 |
68.05 |
1001.00 |
119.95 |
1.42 |
| dylsta05 |
20.83 |
83.77 |
1001.00 |
213.48 |
1.45 |
| korza |
33.52 |
93.23 |
1001.00 |
117.72 |
1.52 |
| MajorLazer |
33.49 |
55.95 |
1001.00 |
93.78 |
1.52 |
| Prospector_1 |
26.37 |
188.87 |
1001.00 |
177.90 |
1.65 |
| McRooster |
40.97 |
338.08 |
688.41 |
95.67 |
2.08 |
| Alex7089 |
47.71 |
262.43 |
346.72 |
71.27 |
2.20 |
| bomberboy0618/Luigi197 |
59.79 |
448.11 |
475.00 |
66.57 |
2.31 |
| thornz23 |
227.82 |
633.33 |
1001.00 |
24.25 |
2.69 |
| Hellopplz |
75.94 |
1001.00 |
273.78 |
66.16 |
3.20 |
| BratPack |
114.46 |
811.97 |
288.75 |
37.97 |
3.25 |
| HillHero13 |
146.15 |
1001.00 |
190.00 |
32.97 |
3.26 |
| naste |
137.28 |
818.97 |
121.17 |
31.04 |
3.51 |
| BoredSaint |
206.52 |
708.96 |
100.32 |
18.10 |
3.80 |
| RobsOverAchieverss |
386.18 |
1001.00 |
78.51 |
17.40 |
5.21 |
| Boomz |
327.59 |
1001.00 |
134.18 |
26.19 |
5.79 |
| benjy251090 |
1001.00 |
1001.00 |
18.80 |
13.33 |
15.74 |
| hawka26 |
1001.00 |
1001.00 |
20.58 |
6.38 |
20.14 |
| ossie85 |
1001.00 |
NA |
18.73 |
11.63 |
26.95 |
| pyronerd |
1001.00 |
NA |
6.04 |
9.63 |
151.52 |
| roo boys! | NA | NA |
1.49 |
4.39 |
1001.00 |
Alex7089
Barlow21
benjy251090
bomberboy0618
boredsaint
DazBurg
fletch74
hawka26
Hellopplz
hillhero13
junktimer
MajorLazer
RiOtChEsS
nas
MTTY
nicktheinsane
ossie85
Roo Boys!
valkorum
Elxam League 