A Junktimer double?

These odds are based on actual mathematical simulations. For details on how these work, check out this article, written by nick_the_insane – the brilliant guy behind this system and The League’s esteemed editor. Remember, these odds will get more accurate as we get closer to the finals

Premiership Odds

Dream Team

The only movement here was elephants now laying claim to be second favaourite for the flag, jumping ahead of Junktimer. Prospector_1 still finds himself favourite, but has drifted slightly.

$9.74 – Prospector_1 (down from $9.04)

$9.83 – elephants (up from $11.01)

$10.77 – Junktimer (down from $9.95)

$10.97 – Marcz (down from $10.74)

$12.19 – thornz23 (up from $13.23)

SuperCoach

With the exception of MTTY, who still holds top-spot, all the other favourites firmed in premiership betting, with reesbr continuing his impressive run and Barlow 21 finally showing some consistency. A Junktimer double for both DT and SC flags is still on the cards.

$7.88 – reesbr (up from $8.38)

$8.65 – Junktimer (up from $10.67)

$9.09 – MTTY (down from $8.75)

$10.53 – Barlow 21 (up from $12.48)

$11.65 – Maca24 (up from $13.49)

Minor Premiership Odds

Dream Team

With Marcz losing top-spot after 2 loses, elephants is now a very strong favourite to take out the minor-premiership as he finds himself a game clear on top. Marcz has drifted to fourth favourite, while browny_wce jumps into the top 5 favourites as he rockets to 2nd spot on the ladder.

$2.72 – elephants (up from $4.30)

$5.36 – Prospector_1 (down from $4.47)

$14.18 – Junktimer (down from $9.19)

$15.57 – Marcz (down from $6.97)

$15.75 – browny_wce (up from $20.26)

Falling outside the top 5 favourites:

$16.17 – Flame (down from $12.61)

SuperCoach

Top scoring this week has seen Junktimer jump to minor-premiership favourite, though MTTY is close behind. No other major movements in the market.

$3.18 – Junktimer (up from $4.53)

$4.25 – MTTY (down from $4.22)

$9.57 – CrowsFan (down from $7.94)

$10.92 – reesbr (up from $11.85)

$11.04 – Maca24 (down from $9.19)

Wooden Spoon Odds (after finals)

Dream Team

HillHero13 and 8-6 Suited have firmed in the spoon race after disappointing results, but Alex7089 is still the clear favourite. Consistency has seen bunyip drift in the betting.

$3.53 – Alex7089 (down from $3.48)

$4.69 – HillHero13 (up from $5.23)

$8.78 – 8-6 Suited (up from $13.32)

$13.26 – bunyip (down from $8.82)

$15.83 – benjy251090 (down from $13.57)

SuperCoach

Some disapointing results from many coaches has seen the market start to change, with hawka26’s run of form ending abruptly and HillHero13 finding himself in the running for spoons in both competitions.

$5.61 – roo boys! (down from $4.36)

$7.36 – benjy251090 (up from $8.48)

$7.78 – hawka26 (up from $10.67)

$11.47 – pyronerd (down from $9.14)

$13.06 – HillHero13 (up from $20.97)

Falling outside the top 5 favourites:

$28.09 – ossie85 (down from $15.94)

Wooden Spoon Odds (before finals)

Dream Team

DazBurg finds himself 2nd last, but the bookies don’t consider him amongst the top-5 favourites to actually finish last. They have firmly entrenched either Alex7089 or HillHero13 to take out the spoon, with bunyip drifting dramatically. A very poor score of 1445 has seen 8-6 Suited come into the frame, and he has the potential to shake up the markets.

$1.66 – Alex7089 (up from $1.70)

$3.61 – HillHero13 (up from $5.03)

$17.76 – bunyip (down from $6.73)

$30.42 – benjy251090 (down from $26.24)

$47.55 – 8-6 Suited (up from $114.87)

Falling outside the top 5 favourites:

$68.44 – dylsta05 (down from $34.94)

SuperCoach

Two victories to roo boys! and pyronerd has shaken up the market a bit, with what was once an almost sure thing, now has some severe elements of doubts. Still a strong favourite is roo boys!, but a poor performance again from benjy has seen him into 2nd favourite, while the odds of a spoon for both naste and HillHero13 have been slashed.

$2.16 – roo boys! (down from $1.44)

$4.20 – benjy251090 (up from $8.61)

$7.41 – pyronerd (down from $5.52)

$24.23 – naste (up from $70.47)

$24.50 – HillHero13 (up from $206.97)

Falling outside the top 5 favourites:

$207.88 – ossie85 (down from $85.20)

Finals Odds

The odds of your team making the final 16 teams? This should give a lot of coaches some hope. In addition, the complete list of all odds is below. Note:

NA – means that out of the 100,000 simulations, it did not happen once.

Certain – A bookies’ (not necessary real) certainty to happen.

If odds are greater than 1000-1, they are rounded to an even 1001.00.

Dream Team

Coach	Premiership	Top	Spoon (bf)	Spoon (af)	Top 16
elephants	9.83	2.72	NA	1001.00	Certain
Prospector_1	9.74	5.36	NA	1001.00	Certain
Junktimer	10.77	14.18	NA	1001.00	Certain
CFC 1979	24.20	16.10	NA	1001.00	1.01
browny_wce	17.08	15.75	NA	1001.00	1.02
Flame	18.89	16.17	NA	1001.00	1.03
Marcz	10.97	15.57	NA	1001.00	1.03
thornz23	12.19	18.50	NA	1001.00	1.03
ossie85	28.50	34.63	NA	593.75	1.07
valkorum	15.31	34.23	NA	1001.00	1.07
Boomz	17.85	35.59	NA	805.08	1.11
MTTY	13.76	114.46	NA	931.37	1.21
McRooster	33.80	92.68	NA	293.21	1.27
hawka26	22.09	125.50	NA	463.41	1.29
korza	31.98	281.90	1001.00	187.75	1.56
pyronerd	36.37	545.98	1001.00	252.66	1.65
BratPack	48.44	772.36	1001.00	151.03	1.97
RobsOverAchieverss	80.17	1001.00	1001.00	105.09	2.00
Hellopplz	71.27	1001.00	1001.00	109.57	2.61
naste	188.12	1001.00	558.82	55.95	4.43
Cicjose	207.88	1001.00	427.93	46.00	4.62
chrisuzz	334.51	1001.00	646.26	46.96	6.05
Fletch74	416.67	1001.00	397.49	40.22	7.33
dylsta05	879.63	1001.00	68.44	18.43	11.77
MajorLazer	931.37	1001.00	90.65	28.43	13.96
reesbr	1001.00	NA	73.70	22.90	15.84
8-6 Suited	1001.00	1001.00	47.55	8.78	24.14
benjy251090	1001.00	NA	30.42	15.83	25.37
DazBurg	1001.00	NA	62.62	27.56	45.28
bunyip	1001.00	NA	17.76	13.26	218.39
HillHero13	1001.00	NA	3.61	4.69	516.30
Alex7089	Inf	NA	1.66	3.53	1001.00

 

 
SuperCoach

 

Coach	Premiership	Top	Spoon (bf)	Spoon (af)	Top 16
Junktimer	8.65	3.18	NA	1001.00	Certain
MTTY	9.09	4.25	NA	1001.00	Certain
reesbr	7.88	10.92	NA	1001.00	Certain
Barlow 21	10.53	11.82	NA	1001.00	Certain
Maca24	11.65	11.04	NA	1001.00	Certain
CrowsFan	13.37	9.57	NA	1001.00	Certain
Fletch74	18.64	34.52	NA	655.17	1.07
korza	17.42	29.01	1001.00	521.98	1.07
MajorLazer	19.36	29.69	1001.00	292.31	1.12
CFC 1979	26.21	88.21	1001.00	174.95	1.25
thornz23	58.39	118.90	1001.00	80.10	1.31
Boomz	42.79	191.53	1001.00	95.67	1.43
bomberboy0618/Luigi197	35.24	359.85	1001.00	95.38	1.56
Marcz	33.58	840.71	533.71	98.96	1.86
Hellopplz	35.75	879.63	545.98	95.10	1.90
Cruiseon	66.85	1001.00	237.50	45.00	2.16
BoredSaint	116.85	855.86	212.53	25.94	2.39
RobsOverAchieverss	132.31	742.19	369.65	24.22	2.43
DazBurg	149.84	1001.00	237.50	29.16	2.86
dylsta05	44.14	1001.00	163.23	92.86	2.87
McRooster	81.20	1001.00	145.71	45.48	2.93
Prospector_1	65.16	1001.00	140.32	63.29	3.02
hawk_88	112.43	1001.00	121.95	30.66	3.14
ossie85	152.24	1001.00	207.88	28.09	3.22
Alex7089	201.27	1001.00	54.79	30.25	5.62
hawka26	1000.00	1001.00	33.87	7.78	7.31
BratPack	294.12	1001.00	29.91	22.30	7.55
naste	404.26	NA	24.23	21.58	8.72
HillHero13	791.67	NA	24.50	13.06	9.39
pyronerd	1001.00	NA	7.41	11.47	59.01
benjy251090	1001.00	NA	4.20	7.36	93.41
roo boys!	NA	NA	2.16	5.61	281.07

May 31, 2011 | Categories: Odds | Leave a comment